February 6th, 2016
Update: Open thread: Brace for impact. The New Hampshire GOP debate. 8:00 ET. The “Live Free Or Die” state is now the “Do or Die” state.
The “year of the monkey“, on Monday. That dull football Superbowl on Sunday. Bernie Sanders on Saturday Night Live. Screw all that. Tonight is our Superbowl!!!
We know next to nothing about sports. We know less about football, American style, and wouldn’t mind knowing even less than that. But we do know that in football there are two teams and both teams develop an offensive strategy and a defensive strategy to achieve their tactical aims, taking into account the strengths and weaknesses of the respective players and
generals coaches directing the armies teams, and succeed in the strategic aim, which is to score and win.
Football, we suspect, is like a military campaign in which the goal is to drop the bomb in the other team’s most closely guarded spot. It’s like ice hockey without the ice. It’s like a chess game in which the goal is to kill the most closely guarded player – the king. In other words, football at its best is a weak, silly, insignificant, diversion, which pales in comparison to the death match brutality of politics.
Tonight, the remaining GOP candidates for president, meet, in New Hampshire, in advance of Tuesday’s first in the nation primary election, and battle with verbal swords, to the death. The serious issues the nation faces should be paramount but they will also be weapons in this joust. There will be blood.
Tonight is very important because it is the last big chance the candidates have to sway the New Hampshire electorate. Unless you are a voter or candidate (or unfortunately in Big Media) your influence is relatively small. So, once again, we ask you put aside your personal preference for a candidate, and play strategist. What would you do?
Assume you are on team Donald J. Trump. What would you do? Attack Ted Cruz even though you pretty much have inflicted all the damage on him that is profitable at this point and more attacks only lead to Malthusian diminishing returns knowing Ben Carson will do that particular job – or attack the rising-in-the-polls second place or third place Rubio, or attack one of the other losers, er candidates, or play nice, discuss only the issues, and try to win the Nobel Peace Prize you have just been nominated for? What would you do?
Assume you are on team Marco Rubio. What would you do? Pretend to be very nice, tout endorsements, and hope niceness deflects or weakens potential incoming attacks and thereby, with a defensive strategy, try to continue to rise to a firm second place, and secretly hope to rise to first place? Or, attack first? Attack Cruz again? Or leave that to Ben Carson? Attack Jeb, knowing Christie will come to his defense? Attack Barbara Bush? What would you do?
Assume you are on team Ted Cruz. What would you do? Attack Trump knowing he will hit back hard but since you know you will lose New Hampshire anyway the goal would be to prevent Trump from winning New Hampshire with an infuriating series of attacks in order to finish off Trump in New Hampshire so that you can move on to South Carolina without Trump in the race and therefore you can consolidate the “outsider” vote? Or attack Rubio in order to come in second and continue to pose a problem for Trump as well as smash Rubio’s 3-2-1 strategy? Or attack one of the other, er, candidates, denounce them as “establishment” and burnish your appeal to South Carolina? What would you do?
Assume you are on team John Kasich. What would you do? Attack Trump knowing he has bested you before? Attack Rubio who stands in your way to the silver position? Or attack Cruz for the same reasons? Or attack one of the other candidates for whom New Hampshire is the “do or die” state? For Governor Kasich it is do or die in New Hampshire and tonight is his last chance to buckeye the odds. What would you do?
Assume you are on team Jeb Bush. What would you do? Prepare a smart answer for when Trump declares that “your mother has more energy than you do Jeb”? Attack Trump as the number one target? Attack Rubio, along with your ally Chris Christie, and bring down that weasel? Attack one of the other candidates for whom New Hampshire is “do or die” or attack Ted Cruz even though Ben Carson has a better case to make against Cruz? Continue poking the mighty bull, Donald Trump, and get the horns again? Or attack your ally Chris Christie because, well, Christie blocks your way too. What would you do?
Assume you are on team Chris Christie. What would you do? Understand that Trump is likely to win New Hampshire and that Rubio is the one that should lead the anti-Trump battle tonight? Would you concentrate all your attacks on that high-heeled bubble boy weasel from Florida? Stand with Jeb if Jeb is attacked or keep your mouth shut and watch Jeb suffer as the life leaves his limp body? Attack Kasich? Attack Cruz? Get on the floor and roll all over every other candidate, squashing them all to death? What would you do?
That last Dem debate on repulsive MSNBC got few eyeballs to turn in. Tonight’s bloodbath is on the ABC network so not only will the interest be high so will the availability of the broadcast. The debate tonight is at 8:00 p.m. ET. Eight O’Clock.
Tonight through Tuesday, New Hampshire is not the “Live Free Or Die” state. Tonight through Tuesday, New Hampshire is the “do or die” state for GOP presidential candidates.
We’ll be in our little pink boat tonight on the scarlet seas making snide comments and doing what we can with a play by play unofficial transcript.
We’ll recover tomorrow from tonight’s bloodbath. Tomorrow, we’ll forgo the tedious football Superbowl. We’ll watch the high tension drama of the Puppy Bowl instead.
February 4th, 2016
We feel like punching Hillary Clinton in the face, kicking her shins, and pushing her down a flight of stairs. We blame tonight entirely on dumbass Hillary. Hillary is to blame for tonight.
Do not, anybody, do not expect us to defend Hillary. Tonight is unforgivable. The blame is entirely on Hillary.
We thought we would never tune into MSNBC again ever in our lives. In 2008 Hillary and Hillary supporters were attacked by the pigs on MSNBC. We declared Hillary should never have anything to do with MSNBC or NBC.
In 2008 MSNBC’s Olbermann suggested Hillary be taken out with a severe beating. The rest of the MSNBC pigs were just as bad. We swore never to watch MSNBC ever again. We’ve been true to our word.
Now, here we are tonight, forced to listen to Jabba the Hut Chris Mattheeews, Chris O’Tingles up the leg for Obama, Chris Spittles. And we blame you Hillary Clinton.
Tonight Hillary is entirely to blame. When she gets hit in the face by pig Chuck Todd and pig Rachel Maddow we will remain silent and hope quietly the MSNBC pigs humiliate and hurt Hillary as badly as possible so that Hillary will learn never to go on MSNBC ever again. What is wrong with this woman that she does these things that demonstrate she has no self-respect?
Hillary2016 “negotiated” tonight. Hillary wanted a debate in New Hampshire before the NH vote. We were prepared to declare Hillary the winner by dint of the debate being held. Because she is far behind the socialist Saint Bernard we figured anything that got her the opportunity to take votes away from Bernie Sanders was a big plus for her. Then we discovered Hillary2016 “negotiated” to be on MSNBC. We exploded in rage.
We are sure any broadcaster, cable outlet, camcorder, person with a camera, theater owner, anybody just anybody, the networks for Pete’s sake, anybody would have been happy to host tonight’s debate. But Hillary2016 agreed, after negotiations to go on MSNBC.
Real smart idiots at Hillary2016. The pigs at MSNBC love Bernie Sanders so that is where the Hillary team negotiates to send her. Unbelievable.
Tonight when Maddow and Todd (and by the way because of Hillary we’ve been subjected to seeing Brian Williams too and that Melissa Harris-Perry pig too!) hit Hillary with Goldman Sachs questions and every nasty question that helps Bernie Sanders and hurts Hillary we will relive 2008 and we will just get angrier – with Hillary. Yeah, we’re pissed.
February 3rd, 2016
Strategy now? Trump needs to finish off Cruz; Cruz needs to finish off Trump; Rubio needs to wiggle through the Trump v. Cruz fight and help himself to second place.
Ted Cruz’s strategy was always to be nice to Trump in order to get Trump voters once Trump collapsed. Rubio has a 3-2-1 strategy of third place in Iowa, second place in New Hampshire, first place in South Carolina. Trump’s strategy has been to make himself the sole candidate of change with the toughest personality and policies.
We have the first post Iowa poll from New Hampshire. All that matters now is New Hampshire. Before Iowa we wrote only Iowa mattered. Now only New Hampshire matters. Has Iowa shaken New Hampshire poll numbers? We would not have been surprised if Trump lost ten points and Cruz/Rubio gained five points apiece. Did that happen? No:
Donald Trump is still in first place, but he’s frozen at 38%. Ted Cruz is second with 14%. Marcio Rubio is third with 12%. Jeb Bush has 9% and John Kasich has 7%.
Rounding out the Republicans: Chris Christie with 6%; Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina with 3% each and Rand Paul with 2%. 6% of voters still remain undecided. [snip]
Sanders gets 61% in our poll and Clinton gets 32%. Only 5% of voters remain undecided.
Iowa did perform its role: Santorum is out. Rand Paul is out. Huckabee is out. (O’Malley on the Dem side is out too.) As to the NH poll results, Trump neither gained nor lost; Cruz rose 2; Rubio rose 4; Kasich down 2; Bush unchanged; Christie/Carson down 1 each; Fiorina up one.
Who is best positioned in regards to their strategy goal? Obviously, Trump. If Trump wins NH he has a great chance of victory in the must win state for everybody: South Carolina. Trump has been well ahead in South Carolina and a victory in New Hampshire should guarantee a double digit victory for Trump. Trump sharply made his first post Iowa speech a showcase for the Scott Brown endorsement. And if you’re wondering why Trump is tackling Cruz so strongly on the Cruz Iowa stunts – it’s because Trump wants the Ben Carson supporters when Ben Carson drops out.
Rubio? Rubio will try to wiggle himself up the pole while Trump and Cruz squabble. But Trump can afford to ignore Rubio right now as long as Trump wins and Cruz is seen as a one state wonder. Rubio wants to come in second in NH in order to get momentum for South Carolina. But a Trump double digit victory (or a 20 point victory) will be the momentum getter and Rubio will not get his much needed momentum. If Rubio loses South Carolina, his 3-2-1 strategy is in tatters and then Rubio faces destruction in his home state. Trump pre-Iowa led Florida in double digits too Rubio today got the kiss of death endorsement from Sweaters Santorum, our least favorite candidate this year as in every year. On the plus side Rubio is now the establishment pick and his money woes should be over. The only remaining question mark for Rubio is whether Jeb Bush decides to attack Rubio or not. Bush appears to be holding steady in NH so Rubio cannot be happy.
As to Cruz, he’s in a death match against Trump in a state very friendly to Trump. Simply put, Cruz is in the wrong battlefield. Cruz should move on to South Carolina and leave Trump to beat up on Rubio in NH. But Cruz probably realizes Trump would only use a Cruz departure to continue to beat up on Cruz, not be distracted by Rubio. That’s why Cruz tries a #Trumpertantrump crusade – it’s all he’s got.
Once Trump dispatches Cruz in New Hampshire, he will turn his attention to Marco Rubio and illegal immigration amnesty. It won’t be pretty for Rubio, the one Chris Christie has dubbed the “bubble boy”.
As to Hillary v. Sanders? Sanders will decisively win in New Hampshire. The problem for Hillary is not Bernie Sanders. Hillary’s problem is a “when” problem:
Hillary however faces a very difficult “when” problem now. The Dims do not have winner take all. So if Hillary wins 60% of the vote in the southern primaries and less in the mountain states where Sanders should do better, when does Hillary win?
Without winner take all primary victories to settle the nomination quickly, Hillary has a much longer “when” horizon than Trump, if he is the eventual nominee.
After yesterday, Hillary has a big “when” problem because although Bernie did not get his “must win” in Iowa the Sanders’ troops do not feel defeated… yet. Hillary will have to bring down the margin in New Hampshire to single digits and deprive Sanders of a ten point or more victory which will fuel his troops with desire for more battle.
Tonight, Hillary and Sanders will engage in a CNN gab-a-thon without the waste of time Baltimore O’Malley. On Saturday the Republicans will have a debate in the style of a medieval tournament with blood splashing all over the place. New Hampshire voters will watch, and we will all have to wait for New Hampshire to decide.
February 2nd, 2016
Has “Trump fever” broken? Did Hillary win? Is the prairie fire doused? Has Big Media won? No!
Big Media is the enemy. Megyn Kelly at Fox News spoke with Marc Thiessen and Chris Stirewalt of Fox News last night and they all chortled. They said Donald Trump lost in Iowa because he defied Fox News by not attending their debate. Later Peter Johnson, the co-author along with Roger Ailes of the anti-Trump sneer memo that set Trump against the Fox News debate, also declared it was Trump’s defiance of Fox News that doomed him. Just about every Fox News mouth assured himself/herself that it was Trump’s defiance of Fox News that sealed defeat. This morning on Fox Business News, John McCain’s Hefty Hideaway girl, the other Meghan, likewise declared that Trump had defied Fox News and therein lay his defeat.
For Donald Trump and his supporters the lesson from last night is that the fight will not be over in one fell chop in Iowa. Instead it will be a long slough. Worst, it demonstrated that an inspirational campaign that brings out voters will not work without a tiresome campaign machinery. It was the Lincolnshire Rising/Pilgrimage of Grace come to America. If there is deep down misery in the Trump loss it is this combined set of reality. This is the lost hope from our predictions article yesterday:
First, a Donald Trump win will be a victory of an inspirational, mass movement campaign of the people, over a technocratic data driven machine that thinks of people as an old IBM card to be folded, spindled, and mutilated (although the Trump campaign claims a well run ground game it prefers to keep secret). Second, a Donald Trump win will be a great victory in the war against Big Media corruption of our politics, in this case one which specifically targets Fox News and hopefully in the future monstrosities such as NBC, MSNBC, and the rest of the Big Media monsters. Big Media is the enemy.
Fox News had a great night last night. We hope that Donald Trump is not cowed by last night and that he continues to fight Big Media.
Why did Fox News have a great night? Because their illegal immigration amnesty shill, the silver fork-tongued Marco Rubio had a great night.
The moment Donald J. Trump defied Fox News with his boycott of the Fox News debate, Fox News went into overdrive in ceaseless promotion of Marco Rubio. At Fox News every show became a Marco Rubio field office. It worked. Rubio became the designated anti-Cruz in the multi candidate race in which Trump and Cruz traded blows which annoyed the public, and votes flowed to him. Rubio had a great night.
The ostensible winner, Ted Cruz, this morning analyzed his victory as one that came about because of his strong attacks against “New York values”. If that is what Ted Cruz believes, Iowa will be a costly victory. To the extent “New York values” attacks resonated in Iowa it is due to the high evangelical population of the Iowa GOP. In New Hampshire the “New York values” attack will not meet with success. For Ted Cruz the question now is where does he replicate his Iowa victory? Does the Cruz victory now result in a poll shift in his favor in New Hampshire?
As to Marco Rubio, he had a great night. Rubio is now the designated candidate of the GOP establishment. Rubio’s problem is that in New Hampshire there are still plenty of other establishment candidates that hold vain hopes of victory. Kasich, Christie, and even the hapless Jeb await their Alamo. As to Jeb Bush, what will the former designated candidate of the GOP establishment do now? Jeb Bush still has $58 million in his SuperPac. Will Jeb Bush spend his cash in attacks against Rubio? Will Jeb Bush quit? Will Jeb Bush attack Trump? What will Jeb Bush do now with his cash?
Donald J. Trump? Trump did not need to win in Iowa. Trump does need to win New Hampshire. Trump has led in New Hampshire with such wide leads that he has a very good chance to follow the now traditional path of losing Iowa, winning New Hampshire.
Last night Trump defied the predictions of Trump haters with a strong, yet gracious, concession speech. There were no denunciations from Trump. It was all loveliness. It conveyed strength even as it was a retreat, think Dunkirk and George Washington. Trump congratulated “everybody” and thanked Iowa.
Donald J. Trump had reasons for his happy warrior, happy competitor, good humor. Premier Trump haters know why Trump’s demeanor was not that of a man defeated but an “on to New Hampshire” confidence. Trump hater Erick Erickson’s The Resurgent:
Donald Trump Is Just Getting Started
For the last seven months I have warned of the menace that is the Donald Trump campaign. [snip]
Trump didn’t win first place in the caucus, but he did place very respectably in 2nd place, and he did so with almost no GOTV organization to speak of. [snip]
Trump was able to do what most thought impossible, he got people to show up without a GOTV operation on the ground going door to door. [snip]
If he can do this in a caucus, which requires the voter to go out and stay out for a rather long time just to cast a series of votes, he can certainly do it in a primary. When you get right down to it, Donald Trump got nearly 40,000 people to show up on a cold February night when a blizzard is on the horizon. That’s no joke.
We have a series of proportional states forthcoming in which we could possibly see Trump pull higher numbers than he has here in Iowa precisely because it can be done with less organization.
What should scare everyone now is if there are any indications Trump decides this was a good opening negotiation point by the voters and begins spending on organization now in earnest.
After all, we know this was just the opening round and Trump isn’t done yet.
The Trump haters from the former Red State that banned Trump from their events are not alone is their red flag warnings:
The guy’s basically half-assing his campaign and he still beat the Great Establishment Hope for second place (I think) and nearly knocked off the hyper-organized, hyper-competent Cruz campaign. He’s no joke. And thanks to a divided moderate field, there’s still every reason to think he’ll win New Hampshire. I’ll leave you with this: Trump now at 41,812 votes, bigger than Huckabee’s 2008 total. That’s a real constituency.
Last night, Ted Cruz survived. That is the sum total of his achievement. Cruz’s long winded victory speech was not a plus. For Iowa, the state can congratulate itself because it did its job: winnow the field. Now New Hampshire and a long campaign of struggle, not a politics of joy.
Iowa not only provided a list of the candidates left standing it removed some of the least favorites from contention. Santorum is gone officially or not. Huckabee has suspended his campaign. Carly Fiorina will hang on till New Hampshire as will Kasich, Christie, Paul, Carson, Bush. But with no more second tier debates they are out unofficially and after New Hampshire they will be out officially.
As to the Democrats, Hillary’s miserable “success” prevents us from declaring a complete rout to our predictions. Hillary’s “victory” is as sleazy as Obama’s victory only less of a victory. Why sleazy? We have no idea what the vote total is. The Democrats are not reporting vote totals. Unlike the Republicans, the Democrats are giving us the percentage of the delegates won under the arcane rules of the Iowa Democratic Party. This is disgusting. Anyone who comments on the Iowa results on the Dim side without mention that the Iowa Democrats will not tell us what the votes of the people are get a digital slap in the face from us. Let’s see the votes, not the phony delegate distribution controlled by party cheats and sleazebags.
The only “news” from Iowa on the Dim side is that we can now thank the cornfields that Martin O’Malley retired from the race. That’s the good news.
Who won? Who knows? We do know that Bernie Sanders needed a victory in Iowa in order to sustain the delusion that Bernie Sanders will get the nomination. Bernie Sanders will not get the nomination. All Bernie Sanders can do is prevent Hillary from the title “President Hillary”.
Iowa was a “must win” state for Bernie Sanders in the same way that Iowa was a “must win” state for Ted Cruz. Cruz got his “must win” but it likely is his penultimate win or last win.
For Bernie Sanders, the “must win” is a bit more complicated. Bernie Sanders’ “must win” Iowa was always a survival strategy to hurt Hillary. To that extent Bernie Sanders got his win.
As of this morning, we do not have a unanimous declaration of Hillary victory in Iowa, nor even an official declaration of anything. It’s still too close. As of today Hillary’s margin of “victory” is less than half a percent. But as we wrote,
Bernie Sanders needs a win. Nothing less. A loss of a quarter point won’t be worth a gallon of piss. Bernie Sanders needs a win.
Bernie Sanders did not get the win. The “win” is useful in most campaigns as it builds momentum for later victories. Bernie Sanders did not get the “win” but neither did Hillary. Hillary did not lose but Hillary did not win. Hillary’s best would have been not only to block Sanders but a victory that would have helped her:
The best that Hillary Clinton can expect is a win of more than 10 points that flattens Bernie Sanders – which gives her momentum and lays to rest all the doubts we and many others have expressed with barely concealed contempt. Hillary should have packed this Bernie loon into the lake a long time ago. But she couldn’t because she believes she can get the kooks to like and vote for her. That is delusional. So for Hillary, a victory will be a win that destroys Sanders, but it won’t get her much other than a victory over a loon.
Bernie Sanders did not win. Why didn’t Hillary win? Hillary didn’t win because the barely detectable margin of “victory” assures that Bernie Sanders will continue to drag Hillary further and further and further to the left and oblivion.
Bernie Sanders is already talking about “voter irregularities” and a possible recount. We don’t know what that means and all it does is, nothing. For Bernie it is a gallon of piss, but for Hillary, well:
How Iowa went wrong for Hillary Clinton
Her vaunted field organization performed as expected. But she didn’t.
DES MOINES – Monday night was Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign in miniature – it began with high hopes of a doubt-eradicating victory and ended with that same old anxiety, an inch beyond the jaws of an underdog. [snip]
Iowa wasn’t just supposed to be a tentative first step in Clinton’s inevitable march to the Democratic nomination, it was meant to be the cornerstone of a rebuilt political persona – and her national team was built from Iowa outward, with a foundational goal of winning here, and winning big.
But nothing is ever easy with Hillary Clinton – especially not here — and her inability to ride a first-class ground organization to triumph underscores the candidate’s weakness and the lack of a message that resonates with primary voters. [snip]
“You’re going to see a bounce in Bernie’s step tomorrow, the first evidence that their message may have taken hold,” said Mo Elleithee, a communications adviser to Clinton’s 2008 campaign. [snip]
How Clinton squandered such a commanding advantage in Iowa is an all-too familiar tale with echoes of 2008, of grit and a top-dollar organization undercut by the candidate’s flaws, the stubborn ambivalence of a state that has now delivered two embarrassments – but above all her inability to capture the zeitgeist of her own party.
Monday began with Clinton’s internal polling pointing to a tight but comfy five-point lead and ended with an essentially deadlocked result that her team chose to call victory.
“A win is a win,” her ally former Sen. Tom Harkin said from the stage here – but it was meager enough (if it existed at all) to allow a Democratic socialist who trailed her by 50 points six months ago to declare, with some justification, a kind of co-victory.
Bernie Sanders did not get a “co-victory”. There was no victory. There was only loss.
On to New Hampshire.
February 1st, 2016
Update: Prediction time. Speak now. We’ve made our predictions, now put up or kiss-up.
Understand this: The governed withdraw their consent from the corrupt political establishment. We’re in a pre-Civil War situation. America 2016 is late stage America of the 1819 Missouri Compromise, the Compromise of 1850, the Kansas Nebraska Act of 1854, Dred Scott decision of 1857, and finally the presidential election of 1860. The stakes are that high. Iowa today possibly sets off the prairie fire.
“A house divided against itself cannot stand.” Only a successful next president that can lead the country and unify it via clear, undisputed economic achievement with resonant leadership can prevent the fraying and eventual dissolution or the long painful circle the drain vortex.
Today, put aside whom you like, whom you favor, this candidate is nice, that candidate is creepy, I like her, I hate him, he’s a pig, he is great, blah, blah blah candidate talk – put that all aside. Put aside the pseudo-intellectual posing drivel that Iowa matters except when it doesn’t and today is nothing to get excited about. This election in Iowa today is potentially the big one. You’ll never live long enough to see it’s like. The Roosevelt election in the 1930s, Reagan, JFK, Buchanan/Obama, Wilson, pikers all. This could be the big one of our lifetimes and many lifetimes after that. Or it could be a fizzle. Just another election. But the chances this is the big one, are… big. And that’s not normal and it is something to watch with awe.
Consider the implications of a Bernie Sanders win in Iowa today. That would mean the Democratic Party electorate in Iowa is gone full tilt kook. That’s our bias talking. Let’s put it another way to comply with our above edict, a Bernie Sanders win means the Democratic Party electorate in Iowa has gone far left as in 1972 with George McGovern and wants to take the national party with them – only further further left.
A Bernie Sanders win in Iowa will not be powered by an agrarian prairie fire revolt even though it is Iowa. A Bernie Sanders win is an Obama coalition victory of callow youth, identity totalitarians, and leftist world-views. It will be a class based, snooty, leftist, identity politics coup. A Bernie Sanders win will not be a prairie fire set to blaze by the working class of the majority white population. A Bernie Sanders win will be a triumph of the left contemptuous of the white working class.
For clarity of analysis we can all be thankful that Bernie Sanders chose not to attack Hillary Clinton on emails, Benghazi, personality, and such. Because of this (tactically foolish to our eyes) tactic on Sanders’ part a victory over Hillary Clinton will be a “clean” one based on the ideological composition of the leftist powers of the Obama Party.
If Bernie Sanders wins in Iowa, the chances of a nationwide Democratic Party realignment from the working class labor base into the situation comedy demographics identity politics of an Obama Coalition based party increase substantially. If Bernie Sanders wins Iowa, he wins New Hampshire, and then all the Clinton firewalls face a prairie fire that can burn them all down.
Hillary Clinton? She’s run such a bizarre campaign, it’s not really a campaign but an embarrassment. A victory for Hillary in Iowa means survival, not much else.
On the Republican side, as in 1860, torches and pitchforks are arrayed in preparation for a revolutionary tournament.
The story is Donald J. Trump on the GOP side. As we’ve written before, Donald Trump represents the destruction of the Republican Party. That destruction became inevitable once Barack Obama destroyed the Democratic Party and reshaped it into such a warped creature that now the nonentity called Bernie Sanders appears ready for a victory in Iowa to be followed by a victory in New Hampshire which begins the fire which consumes the Clinton political history.
Again, as we have written before, Donald Trump can take over the Republican Party because Barack Obama chased out seniors, and the white working class, among others. These orphan populations headed to the cold environs of the Republican Party. Then Donald Trump came along and offered a warm home, with a welcoming hearth, some hot soup, and a promise to Make America Great Again and throw out Barack Obama and his circus troupe from their occupation of the White House.
If Donald Trump wins the Iowa Caucuses today, as we have written months ago, Donald Trump gets the nomination. That’s conventional wisdom now but not when we wrote it. Now here’s the kicker: If Donald Trump wins the Iowa Caucuses and the nomination, then the likelihood the Republican Party is irrevocably changed increases dramatically. We believe that will happen if Trump (1) wins the Iowa Caucuses; (2) wins the nomination; (3) wins the presidency. We think all three are very very likely to happen.
Can it happen? Will it happen? What is the best Trump can expect? What is the best Bernie Sanders can expect? What is the best Hillary Clinton can expect?
The best that Hillary Clinton can expect is a win of more than 10 points that flattens Bernie Sanders – which gives her momentum and lays to rest all the doubts we and many others have expressed with barely concealed contempt. Hillary should have packed this Bernie loon into the lake a long time ago. But she couldn’t because she believes she can get the kooks to like and vote for her. That is delusional. So for Hillary, a victory will be a win that destroys Sanders, but it won’t get her much other than a victory over a loon. Hillary has to realize her problem is not Sanders but Barack Obama. But Hillary is so wacked out she seems to think packaging herself as the Obama third term is a solution, not the problem it is.
Bernie Sanders needs a win. Nothing less. A loss of a quarter point won’t be worth a gallon of piss. Bernie Sanders needs a win. If Bernie Sanders wins Iowa, then he wins New Hampshire, then he loses less in the later primaries and his great fear becomes Barack Obama’s machinations to torpedo Sanders and Hillary and impose the Obama secret candidate to be revealed at the convention. Bernie Sanders needs a win. A big win for Sanders would be a Muskie moment for Hillary.
Donald Trump? Donald Trump does not need to win the Iowa Caucuses. But a loss, even a slight loss, makes his road a lot tougher, but not an impossible road to travel.
Can Trump win? We think so. We think Trump probably will win. In fact, we think that the Iowa surprise could be a big Donald Trump win. But it won’t matter. Trump just needs to win – even by a single vote.
Yes we think Trump will win the Iowa Caucuses. But, but, but, such is the unpredictable nature of the Iowa Caucuses that we cannot really figure out some basic equations. For instance, there is a storm headed towards Iowa tonight. We cannot say if a storm or bad weather in Iowa tonight, as the Iowa Caucuses begin, is good news or bad news for Trump or Sanders, or Clinton. The polls say the Trump, and oddly the Clinton supporters, not the Sanders’ supporters, are the most committed to their candidate. The polls also seem to imply that the Trump and Sanders campaigns are the ones that need many new voters to go to the caucuses. So does a Trump cheerleader hope for a storm thinking that the committed Trump voters will show up to vote no matter if Hell freezes over – or – does a Trump cheerleader hope for a lovely evening so that many Iowans who have never voted before leave their homes to Trump, Trump, Trump? Brit Hume who hates Trump is either setting up the expectations game or he really does think Trump has it in the bag:
Brit Hume: The polling suggests that Donald Trump does not need a big surge from first time voters. He is leading with those who describe themselves as mainstream Republicans, which means if all things are equal and we get a normal or perhaps an enlarged turnout, he’ll be fine. And if there is a huge surge of new voters, he does very well among them, he could win going away. I think this poll suggests it’s going to be tough for one of his challengers to overtake him.
We also cannot assess the impact of all the ads this weekend in Iowa. We’re not there. Donald Trump is being hammered by ads. But so are Rubio and Cruz and many others. Ads, ads, ads. Do they matter?
We also cannot assess the impact of the non-stop Fox News war against Trump this past week and weekend. Does any voter in Iowa believe Fox News and their subtle digs against Trump in matters great and small? We don’t think so, but we can’t make a real assessment because we are not in Iowa. We also do now know how the other campaigns will strategize and to whom they will give their support at the caucuses themselves in order to play “block Trump from victory”.
We do know that if Ted Cruz does not win Iowa his campaign is dead. There will be no comeback. Trump will inherit the Cruz voters quickly. We do know that if Huckabee and Santorum do not win in Iowa their campaigns are deader than the death state they are in already. We do know that if Ben Carson does not come in second his campaign will survive only until South Carolina, if that long.
We do know that the polls suggest that Trump is on top in Iowa. Today’s last poll continues to post Trump on top, but topples Hillary in favor of Saint Bernard. Has Bernie Sanders surged the little bit he needs to win? But if Bernie Sanders wins it means that all the millions Hillary spent in the Iowa field of dreams has become a nightmare. In that case Hillary will wish she followed our advice.
What is the best outcome for Trump from the Iowa Caucuses? First a big win. Second a Hillary loss. That might be exactly what happens.
For those that hate Donald Trump, we offer a few reasons to cheer him on. First, a Donald Trump win will be a victory of an inspirational, mass movement campaign of the people, over a technocratic data driven machine that thinks of people as an old IBM card to be folded, spindled, and mutilated (although the Trump campaign claims a well run ground game it prefers to keep secret). Second, a Donald Trump win will be a great victory in the war against Big Media corruption of our politics, in this case one which specifically targets Fox News and hopefully in the future monstrosities such as NBC, MSNBC, and the rest of the Big Media monsters. Big Media is the enemy.
We think Bernie Sanders will win tonight. We will find that a catastrophe but Hillary should have listened to us.
We think Trump will win. We will cheer him on. His campaign already has achieved so much. We’ll have an idea that Trump has won early if traffic picks up in Iowa streets and roads as the hour approaches. We’ll have an idea that Trump has won big if the turnout is indeed over 135,000. We think we will know all this rather early too, not past bedtime.
We think Trump has run a masterful campaign. In a sense, the primary ends tonight if Trump wins in tiny Iowa tonight because of Trump’s truly bold, well strategized, and well executed campaign. Trumps campaign ends tonight, we think, as it began – pitch perfect. Trump’s pitch perfect, final campaign ad for Iowa is really a general election ad:
If Trump wins tonight and Hillary loses, say “President Trump”.